Q3 2024 Market Conditions Report
by Phil Bartkowski and Tim Jed
Download the full PDF report.
Our Q3 2024 Market Conditions report summarizes current market conditions, industry trends, and mitigation strategies to make more informed business decisions in the quickly changing construction landscape.
Overview
At DPR and across the construction industry, we are experiencing a historic amount of building. Riding this wave of new projects has been both exhilarating and challenging.
When new projects turn into opportunities for DPR to be the builder of choice, we go through a robust evaluation of the project often before the Request for Proposal (RFP) is even issued. Here are some of the factors that we consider when evaluating an opportunity:
The Team: Do we have the right people and expertise available to support the project’s demand?
Core Market: Does this project fit within our core markets of Life Sciences, Advanced Technology, Healthcare, Commercial or Higher Education?
Relationships: What is our existing relationship with the customer? Is this a new customer we want to build a relationship with?
Partnerships & Integration: Will we be able to partner with the client and design team to assist with decision-making and direction setting? Will we be able to perform key trades (i.e. concrete and drywall) to ensure that we can control production demands and drive the schedule? Are we able to ensure constructability reviews and early models can be built to avoid slow-downs and re-work in the field?
With that context, the opportunities in life sciences, advanced technology, and healthcare markets are the three dominant core markets for work put-in-place by DPR since 2021. This year, looking at the new project awards through June 2024, the trend is interesting as we’ve seen a healthcare surge and the ever-steady advanced technology at the top.
It’s difficult to predict the industry outlook based on DPR awards in a six-month window, but even when we look at open opportunities with a construction start in 2025 and beyond, those same core markets—advanced technology, life sciences, and healthcare—are at the top.
An interesting analysis is the number of opportunities versus the volume of opportunities. We are forecasting a significant jump in commercial projects from a number of opportunities looking to start in 2025, which is promising for a market hit hard during COVID and still dealing with ‘long-term COVID’ effects.
Diving into the volume of projects (total project contract value projection of an opportunity) presents data and insights that are incredible.
Understanding Large Projects and ‘Mega-Jobs’
The industry tends to refer to any construction project over $1 billion as a “Mega-Job” and DPR uses similar terminology to categorize different types of jobs based on scale and/or magnitude. These mega-jobs are certainly prevalent recently with the investment in chip manufacturing, large-scale pharmaceutical manufacturing/production, and the explosion of all things cloud-connected and AI-driven. The race to invest and see who can scale first and win seems to drive most of these mega-jobs.
Now, we don’t have these falling into our lap all the time, but there are some significant target projects on the horizon. If you lower that bar from $1 billion to $100M+ projects, the gates open much wider, and we see a range of projects across all core markets in the ‘Large Projects’ category, as we call it.
These projects are different, and there isn’t anything magical about going from $999,999,999 to $1,000,000,000 (or the ‘Tres Comas’ club), but the complexity, pace, risk, and demand of the project are just different. The risk is greater on the customer side, on the builder side, and on the safety side.
Here are a few key areas of focus when we are planning for a large project:
The Team and Organization
These projects demand a dedicated team that is often large. Identifying the right group of leaders that can look out for the owner, align with the design team and keep the work moving forward is paramount. Morale can also be a challenge on some of these projects where the ‘grind’ can set in, so having excitement and engagement on-site is also a huge challenge. Setting up teams and clusters within the team can enhance the comradery and ownership of responsibilities with a big team, driving focus, energy, and purpose into what we are building every day.
Design and Procurement
These things are so inherently linked to a project’s success. Procurement must help shape the design, and the design needs to meet the demands of procurement. If these things aren’t integrated effectively, the project will run into delays and budget impacts and potentially miss out on having the “right” subcontractor on board. The time best spent is to have a cohesive and aligned approach to design integration with the project’s cost and schedule. By taking the time to understand the needs of the owner, design and construction teams, we can align on what we need to buy, when we need it to achieve the schedule demands, and how to build a design approach that focuses energy on what we need now, mid-term and long-term to hit the goals of the project.
Getting it Right the First Time
The reason we advocate for the use of our BIM and VDC processes (Virtual Design and Construction) with large projects is to ensure that we build something once and in the safest manner. Re-work can kill a productive project, especially on larger projects where we have repetition of scope items, materials, and details. Emphasizing the use of the model early allows us to sort out construction details, create virtual mock-ups for owner acceptance before we build it, and eliminate costly and timely clashes in the field. Small problems multiply into big problems on projects, but they can often be avoided if we can align early on quality approaches that leverage the model more effectively.
Financial Risk
The amount of money handled on these projects is substantial. Our customers have so much at stake being the financier of the project. DPR has a huge commitment when it comes to ensuring that we have the right budgets for our team, the appropriate scopes covered in our estimates, and tight accounting on the project to keep the project moving effectively. Our trade partners and subcontractors have a significant amount of risk ensuring they can fund their payroll and materials to execute the work, as they might have to ramp up their workforce to achieve the project demands. Money fuels the project at every level and having aligned cash flow expectations for the project is a crucial and fair effort to prioritize.
Just like every project we get to build, whether it’s $1,000,000,000 or $100,000, our job is to ensure that our customer’s expectations are clearly established and ultimately achieved.
Looking to 2025
You might have heard already, but 2024 is a United States Presidential election year. Breaking News! In our Q2 report, we shared some perspectives and data on how much an election of a Democrat or Republican really affects the economy. Regardless, we believe that the economy as it relates to construction sectors has proven to be as stable as ever. So despite any worries and fears of what’s going to happen, our perspective would be optimistic that we continue the growth trend in building projects in our core markets.
When it comes to policies and government funding, we haven’t specifically experienced direct negative impact on the markets that we serve. In fact, the investment into our core market sectors across the nation have consistently exceeded expectations year over year.
Happy 50th “Scanniversary”!
Fifty years ago, on June 26, 1974, the first universal product code (UPC or barcode) was scanned at a Marsh Supermarket in Troy, Ohio, to purchase a pack of Wrigley’s chewing gum, starting supply chain automation.
Some people may remember standing at checkouts with cashiers punching number keys for each item that they read from a price sticker that was on every single item in a store.1
The barcode was a big step forward in supply chain and logistics, as well as for the consumer, as we now regularly utilize self-checkout at stores and scan the newer version of the bar code, known as the QR code, to obtain additional product information.
Companies use these technologies to automate picking and packing, aid in pricing and inventory management, increase efficiency and traceability, provide real-time information and supply chain visibility, and drive cost out of the fulfillment model.2 This technology has become fundamental to modern logistics and inventory management practices, helping businesses operate more effectively and competitively in today’s global marketplace. These little markings help us to better understand and mitigate supply chain challenges.3
While supply chain challenges have eased significantly and continue to improve, for some items, like electrical equipment and materials, extended lead times persist. The domestic economy continues to do well, with inflation hovering around 3% or slightly higher since June of 2023,4 and unemployment has been at or below 4.1% since November of 2021.5 There are frequent reports of new record highs in the stock market, despite a presidential candidate assassination attempt and an upcoming hotly contested election.
Commercial construction spending is up 10% YOY April ‘23 to April ‘24, with the only down sectors being warehouses, food/beverage/tobacco, and transit. Construction employment is up in 39 states YOY May ‘23 to May ‘24.6 In an interview with author Peter Goodman, regarding his recent book, “How the World Ran Out of Everything,” he says “…the inflation rate has cooled quite a bit, but the prices haven’t come down for all sorts of things. I mean, we’ve got scarcity. A lot of it’s engineered, some of it’s disruption from the supply chain.”7 This echoes what we are seeing, as availability is improving, but pricing is still not dropping.
U.S. Unemployment and Construction Spending
Logistics, Weather, and Geopolitics: Where the rudder meets the road
Drought has eased and booking slots have improved in the Panama Canal to near-normal levels of 35 boats per day,8 and the water levels of the Mississippi River are also returning,9 yet some shipping routes are approaching $10,000 per container,10 four times more than they were at the end of last year. This is being fueled by the continued Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea—70 vessels since November, killing four sailors, with one vessel seized, and two sunk.11 Houthi attacks have disrupted and reduced volume through Suez Canal to 1/10th of its typical volume.12 Rerouting these vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope has impacted 10% - 15% of world trade, and the impact has added up to 15 more days in transit time, and 40% in additional fuel costs.13 In reaction to these delays, customers have placed larger-than-normal orders earlier than usual, further exacerbating the issue.
Ukraine has largely adapted to being in a state of war while still effectively exporting material, including materials that we depend on in the U.S.14 But China, Russia, and Iran are becoming closer allies with each other.15 This is a concern to the U.S.,16 creating further tensions, and causing the U.S. to respond with additional tariffs and controls, including attempts to end workarounds used by buyers to avoid Chinese tariffs by passing those materials through other countries, like Mexico and Vietnam. In recent developments:
The White House announced it will impose tariffs on Chinese metals that are being routed through Mexico to avoid the China tariffs.17
A June letter from the U.S. Congressional Steel Caucus asked Gina Raimonda, U.S. Secretary of Commerce, to stop consideration of granting Vietnam “market economy status” with the U.S., citing Vietnam’s top-down government controlled economy and unfair competition for the U.S. steel industry.
48.2% of rare earth elements are located in China and Russia, so geopolitical tensions with the U.S. could be a problem, particularly with semi-conductors.18 The semiconductor industry is expected to be worth $1 trillion annually by 2030, with some semiconductors using over 300 materials. Increased demand for semiconductors will require increased volumes of materials. China mines 60 percent of the world’s rare earth elements and processes about 90%. The United States has no domestic production of 14 of the minerals on the critical minerals list and relies on other countries for these materials.19
Tensions also continue to grow between China and their neighbors, including Japan, The Philippines, and Taiwan.20 Nearly half of the world’s 5,400 container ships passed through the Taiwan Strait in 2022,21 so changes in this region could affect ocean freight significantly. But we also rely heavily on Taiwan for our semi-conductors, and even with 73 new semiconductor fabrication facilities planned or currently under construction in the U.S.,22 it doesn’t help in near term, nor does it solve the problem of where the rare earth elements will come from for manufacturing of these chips. Furthermore, how does domestic chip manufacturing help if the rest of the item is manufactured offshore in China? Will we export chips to China to be used in those products?
There is still a lot to figure out in the long term to have a truly resilient and stable supply chain for products containing semi-conductors. To this point, on June 14 Reuters reported that President Biden issued an executive order formalizing a White House council on supply chain resilience and ordered a comprehensive study by year end.23
In Rail, on August 9th, the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) approved Canadian rail workers’ right to strike, with workers voting to strike this past May. The strike commenced on August 22nd.24 In a proactive response, U.S. West Coast freight facilities are being stressed as shippers divert containers from Canada to the U.S. to avoid potential operational issues, according to a report from ITS Logistics.25
In trucking, it seems that the freight market has finally bottomed out after a two-year period of inventory destocking, excess trucking capacity, and historically low rates,26 and freight rates are beginning to rise, although we haven’t seen this at DPR yet. The Port of Baltimore, which has been closed since the key bridge collapsed after having been hit by a ship, has reopened27 but the bridge will take time to rebuild. Some HAZMAT trucks have been using the tunnels in Baltimore to save time instead of taking the 35-mile detour on congested highways. This could create serious issues, as having HAZMAT materials spill or combust in tunnels could cause safety problems and further snarl traffic around Baltimore. This problem is being amplified with the reopening of the port, as there is now more cargo, more containers, more trucks, and more traffic.28
The Next 50 Years: the centenAIry
Where is all this headed? Josh Mayer, The CEO of The Summit Advisory Team, a supply chain consulting firm, feels that companies are too focused on transportation as a solution. He says:
“The old way is too cost-focused. People say, ‘I have six warehouses. Can I close three and remain within my transportation budget?’ But that’s missing the point. Technologies such as AI and robotics are changing the math behind the scenes. Instead of asking if you should close three warehouses, you should ask how AI and autonomous supply chain concepts will disrupt traditional thinking and impact revenue, profitability and customer experience over the coming years.”
His belief is that AI will better enable future solutions in continuous network optimization, autonomous warehouses, and better technological connectivity and partnerships. Improvement in these three areas should allow people to be used in a more effective manner and will free up resources to manage the business instead of using human resources for unskilled activities.
But he also asks the question: “Can my current team make the switch?”29 This is a challenge that resonates with us. At DPR, we believe in continual self-initiated change, improvement, learning and the advancement of standards for their own sake.
Where Can We Help?
By focusing on having a best-in-class supply chain at DPR, we are actively adapting to a new world by bringing better solutions and more predictable results to our customers through continual change within our teams.
Impacts Looking Forward
These impacts are based on actual communications received from our suppliers and distributors, and may be different than the Market Conditions Dashboard, as this information is based on specific products compared to the general data in the Market Conditions Dashboard.
Impact | Status | Recommendation |
Domestic Trucking: | Domestic freight market rates continue to remain low but are starting to tick up due to a consolidation of providers. | Continue to use the spot market to ensure best prices, but don’t delay if pricing seems competitive. |
Ocean Freight/Containers: |
We anticipate higher ocean rates will remain for the next 90 days. Until the Red Sea crisis is resolved, the mitigation will continue to consume container capacity and time. This will lead to sustained increased ocean rates for the foreseeable future. |
Anticipate higher pricing across goods imported from Asia. Factor in additional cost of importing and look for domestic sources of supply to provide best cost to owners. |
Copper: |
Traders artificially pushed pricing up hoping for China demand to increase similar to nickel trading in 2022. Additionally, on August 13th, workers at the world’s largest copper mine in Escondida, Chile, commenced a strike leading to a work stoppage. This mine provided 5% of the world’s copper in 2023. |
We may see continued volatility, recommend aggregating and procuring material in advance. |
Lumber: | Continued weak demand from industries. | Observe market and procure as needed, Spring & Summer typically have strong demand which leads to increased pricing, but this may not hold true in 2024 due to weak demand overall. |
Biggest Impacts Since Last Quarter
Impact | Cause |
Electrical Equipment: Leadtime (40-65+ weeks), Delay 8-15 weeks+ |
Manufacturers rescheduling their production plans impacted a lot of existing customer orders with delays putting schedules at risk. |
Copper tube, pipe, and wire: 3-8% price increase |
Copper market is under a lot of pressure from balancing demand and supply. Commodities traders have also taken positions in this balancing, creating higher volatility similar to what we saw with nickel. |
PVC Pipe and Tubes: 5% price increase |
Demand and speculation of shortage due to upcoming hurricane season. |
Insulation (wool & fiberglass): 7-10% price increase |
Surge in demand from residential builders, manufacturers are on allocation. |
Mitigation Strategies
DPR has been actively working to control our destiny and prepare for the future in managing our supply chain. Our aim is to ensure a reliable supply chain that keeps our projects on track, hitting critical milestones, and minimizing the effect of outside events.
Supplier Relationship Management
Through our strategic relationship with a distributor in Division 10 materials, we were able obtain materials in a more efficient supply network that were otherwise cost prohibitive. Why this matters: This helps us be cost effective for our customers, and meet their needs relative to preferred products.
Strategic Sourcing
Safety is important to not only our people but our projects. When it comes to ensuring proper specs for boots at the jobsite and protecting our folks, we partnered with a strategic supplier to aggregate our spend and standardize how we buy safety boots to enhance our site safety while reducing costs. Why this matters: Aggregation and standardization can help us drive sourcing strategy across all categories of materials including PPE and ensure safety for our people and projects.
Tactical Procurement - Electrical
As lead times for switchgear remain long, outside the box thinking has become routine. With a new project starting, temporary power was the first thing on the list. Through our relationships, we located over $10M in gear from a non-DPR project that had been cancelled, was available, and hadn’t been installed. The gear was acquired within a few weeks, saving months of schedule time by not having to order from the factory. Why this matters: Being able to explore different avenues of procurement allows us to cut down lead times and improve project schedules.
Logistics - Short-Term Storage
We needed an outside storage solution for ocean cargo for a project in Orlando. We provided a storage solution quickly, and for a shorter time frame than is typically able to be provided. Why this matters: Being able to react to short-term storage needs provides value to both the owner and the DPR team. It allows us to maintain the project schedule at appropriate storage costs without locking in long-term storage contracts, which would lead to inefficient excess unneeded capacity.
Logistics - Large Equipment Storage
We have contracted with a national provider of warehousing that has the necessary rigging and storage capabilities for larger equipment, in locations that align with our DPR projects. Why this matters: Having warehouses that can handle and lift larger products means we can now store any type of material we need to support our projects and owners.
Collaborative Procurement
With a heat wave coming toward the Sacramento area, our Procurement team jumped in to support a pressing need for worker hydration. One of the vendors had inventory issues that would have prevented on-time delivery. The Procurement team provided an alternative solution, which met the needs of our customer, and ensured our job teams would remain well hydrated and stay safe. Why this matters: On time cost effective solutions, and the ability to pivot and solve unforeseen problems, helps ensure our projects are on time and on budget.
Resources
Check out our Market Conditions
Dashboard
Past data reflects the movement of PPI indices, as provided by the US Bureau of Labor and Statistics and is captured and updated monthly.
Future forecast data is gathered through DPR’s Supplier Relationship Management Program in coordination with leading industry manufacturers and suppliers. Forecasted data is captured and modeled quarterly as an average of several surveys to multiple suppliers within the trade.
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Materials
Information in this report is compiled from third-party reporting that is available to the public. It is not owned by DPR Construction.
United States Census Bureau
United States Department of Labor
United States Energy Information Administration
United States Chamber of Commerce
United States Bureau of Labor Statistics
Engineering News Record
American Institute of Architects
Cumming Corporation
1 www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Bftb_YptL8
2 www.forbes.com/sites/katevitasek/2024/06/26/50th-scanniversary-honors-upcs-and-next-generation-barcodes/
3 www.cnn.com/2024/01/18/style/barcode-design-history-bullseye-partner/index.html
4 https://www.usinflationcalcula...
5 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
6 https://www.agc.org/sites/defa...
7 https://abcnews.go.com/US/new-...
8 https://www.eia.gov/todayinene...
9 https://thelensnola.org/2024/0...
10 https://www.msn.com/en-us/mone...
11 https://apnews.com/article/yem...
12 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/0...
13 https://gmk.center/en/posts/ho...
14 https://gmk.center/en/posts/ho...
15 https://www.economist.com/fina...
16 https://breakingdefense.com/20...
17 https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-t...
18 https://www.visualcapitalist.c...
19 https://www.csis.org/analysis/...
20 https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotli...
21 https://www.newsweek.com/map-t...
22 https://www.conaxtechnologies.....
23 www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-issuing-executive-order-supply-chain-resiliency-efforts-2024-06-14/
24 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/0...
25 www.dcvelocity.com/articles/60785-potential-canadian-rail-worker-strike-impacts-us-west-coast-ports
26 www.dcvelocity.com/articles/61283-ftr-truck-freight-market-has-finally-bottomed-out
27 www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/port-of-baltimore-is-back-open-for-business-state-federal-leaders-celebrate-historic-milestone/
28 www.thebaltimorebanner.com/community/transportation/francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse-hazmat-trucks-tunnels-V3MAXLPOWFDKDH6PR3R4IUTQZY/
29 https://www.fastcompany.com/91...
Photos: Danny Sandler